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Monday, January 23, 2012

Now iSuppli Believes Windows Phone Will Surpass iPhone by 2015


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Is this irrational exuberance over a smart phone competitor that simply won't offer up yet another me-too experience? Or are the market researchers who have routinely picked Microsoft's Windows Phone to surpass Apple's once-dominant iPhone by 2015 on to something?

In 2011, several market researchers, including most notably IDC and Gartner, all picked Windows Phone to beat back the iPhone by 2015. This week, iSuppli added its own view to the matter, also picking Microsoft's mobile OS to surpass iPhone and become the number two smart phone platform after Android.

It's a dream finish for the home team in Redmond. But is it more than a fantasy?

"The Lumia 900 introduction will trigger a smartphone renaissance for Nokia and Microsoft," iSuppli notes this week in a press release. "Largely based on Nokia's strong support, Windows Phone is set to regain the number 2 rank in smartphone operating systems in 2015."

Let's look at the numbers. Today, the top four smart phone platforms break down as follows, according to iSuppli:

1. Android, with 47.4 percent market share
2. Others, 32.7 percent
3. iPhone, 18 percent
4. Windows Phone, 1.9 percent

In 2015, the firm expects things to look like so:

1. Android, 58.1 percent
2. Windows Phone, 16.7 percent
3. iPhone, 16.6 percent
4. Others, 8.6 percent

Windows Phone will hit 9 percent market share in 2012, according to iSuppli, and jump further to 15.3 and then 16.1 percent in 2013 and 2014. During this time, iPhone will fall, to 17.3 percent in 2013 and then 16.8 percent in 2014, when it will barely surpass Windows Phone.

This would all seem rather ludicrous if IDC and Gartner hadn't been saying the same thing for months. Otherwise, I'd simply ignore it, given Windows Phone's sub-2 percent market share today. But why does iSupplie--and IDC and Gartner--think things are going to change so dramatically? Is it really just because of Nokia?

Yes.

"Although Nokia is not the only seller of Windows Phone smartphones, the company is expected to dominate the market, accounting for 50 percent of all Microsoft OS-based handsets sold in 2012, IHS iSuppli predicts," the press release notes. "The company's share then is set to rise to 62 percent in 2013. Nokia’s portion of the market will begin to decline in 2014, as other companies increase their sales of Windows Phone products."

Well. There you go. Are you buying it? 

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  • Posted @ January 24, 2012 01:05 PM by BananaJr

    Well domestically in the US that "whatever" stage is responsible for over half the sales of all smartphones in this last quater based on just announced numbers from Verizon. And that is only selling two of the three models avail. So now the two largest networks in the US sell more iPhones than all other smartphones combined. The irony of this post is that while the ads are creative, funny and entertaining if Windows Phone doesn't attract the same lemmings and lines it will continue to languish it it's current irrelevant status.

  • Posted @ January 24, 2012 04:41 AM by Mustang17

    I can see Apple's share falling. Unless they do something to update the UI of the phone, its looking really dated now. The mythical iphone 5, apart from blind loyalty from Apples fanbase, well, its getting to the 'whatever..' stage.

    I really hope the WP7 does well it deserves it.

  • Posted @ January 23, 2012 06:10 PM by Info Dave

    Color me suspicious. It makes no sense, yet multiple prognosticators are repeating the story. 16.7% of the 2015 smartphone market is a lot of phones. Gartner and IDC basically said, all of Nokia's (Symbian) market would naturally convert to WP7, no defectors. It's been a year or so since then and so far, they have less market share than they had. It will take momentum to turn that around.

    As long as we're fantasizing, here's my dream situation for 2015. Apple and Microsoft are the providers of the walled garden, curated app store, with a great deal of cloud support, that almost works. Android and webOS are the two open source providers. There is enough market to support two open source ecostyems. And RIM is the high end, secure solution. Each group has 20% market share. "Other" is zero, because the ecosystem is so important, only a few can be supported.

    If Microsoft is on the ball, WP7 won't exist in 2015. The phone will be moved to Windows 8 and WinRT. WP7 is a stopgap, If Microsoft really wants to get ahead, they should provide a source code conversion tool to move WP7 to WinRT. Active development could occur now, with the promise of source code compatibility. I can't imagine anyone making a long term investment in WP7. No product of significant merit will ever occur on WP7.

  • Posted @ January 23, 2012 04:42 PM by phil swenson

    I have no idea where WP7 will be in 2015. And neither does iSuppli. See http://www.isuppli.com/mobile-and-wireless-communications/news/pages/reports-of-windows-mobiles-death-are-greatly-exaggerated.aspx

  • Posted @ January 23, 2012 04:41 PM by phil swenson

    "Explain to me how one phone, even the iPhone has any hope of ultimately competing against multiple big name manufacturers of Android and Windows Phone devices that will run circles around their one yearly release?"

    Explain to me why any company needs many releases a year to be competitive? People generally upgrade their phones on a 2 year cycle, right?

    Having too many releases a year means your products tend to be less refined. Note: http://www.phonearena.com/news/HTC-RIM-Sony-and-Motorola-to-follow-Apples-blueprint-with-fewer-releases-each-year_id25872

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